Global Emerging Markets
Risk Database Consortium
Leveraging data from Multilateral Development Banks and Development Finance Institutions to support investment and development
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GEMs publishes a new report on recovery rates for private and sub-sovereign borrowers in emerging markets
GEMs recovery statistics 1994-2022 available online for the first time
Luxembourg, 25 March 2024 — The Global Emerging Markets Risk Database (GEMs) Consortium has published today for the first time the recovery rates of investments with private and sub-sovereign borrowers in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) for the period 1994-2022. The statistics are collected from the group of 19 multilateral development banks and development finance institutions that are members of the GEMs Consortium and are available online for free on the GEMs website (gemsriskdatabase.org).
The new report is the result of the consortium’s continued effort and commitment to provide, to a wider audience, statistics based on the GEMs database to support investments in emerging markets and complements the well-received default statistics reports published in the fourth quarter of 2023, also available on the GEMs website. Going forward, GEMs will publish default and recovery statistics on a regular basis. GEMs is working with all members of the consortium to publish additional statistics that could provide information and confidence to the private sector for investing in emerging markets.
Nadia Calviño, President of the European Investment Bank, which hosts the GEMs Secretariat in Luxembourg said: “The GEMs Consortium, co-founded by the EIB and the World Bank Group, is an example of how we can have a far greater impact when we work together. The publication today and sharing of information with public and private sector partners is a direct response to the call by the G20 for International Financial Institutions to support reform of the financial system by sharing data and expertise more widely. I’m hopeful that this first important step will help us all to drive transformative investments in emerging markets and developing economies.”
The availability of the GEMs statistics will provide deeper insights into markets where it is difficult to find reliable credit information. They will also help to support the mobilisation of private investments in emerging markets, addressing one of the key recommendations of the G20. The GEMs Consortium will continue working on further methodological refinements and data enrichment to provide in the near future an even wider range of statistics and details.
FAQs
This section provides answers to the most common questions about GEMs institutional developments ant its products.
ABOUT US
GEMs, the Global Emerging Markets Risk Database Consortium, is one of the world’s largest credit risk databases for the emerging markets operations of its member institutions, that are Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) and Development Finance Institutions (DFIs). It pools data on credit defaults on the loans extended by consortium members, the migrations of their clients’ credit rating and the recoveries on defaulted projects.
GEMs was established in 2009 as a joint initiative between the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC – World Bank Group). Since then, the GEMs consortium has grown to include 25 members comprised MDBs and DFIs.
The Consortium members contribute anonymized data on their projects’ credit events notably in emerging markets and developing economies. In return, members gain access to aggregate GEMs statistics on observed default rates, rating migration matrixes and recovery rates by geography, sector, time-period and various other dimensions.
GEMs statistics thus provide members with an insight into geographies that are otherwise relatively poorly served in terms of empirical credit information.
Institutions
Years of data
Counterparts
Contracts
For lower income countries, fragile and conflict states and frontier markets, GEMs in many cases contains the most exhaustive database of credit data, both in number of data points and length of coverage. The consortium members apply the GEMs statistics in their various internal risk management processes, such as benchmarking, provisioning estimates, probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD) models calibration, regulatory and economic capital calculations and the validation on PD & LGD assumptions.
OUR GUIDING PRINCIPLES
Cooperation
GEMs is not only a data-driven cooperation among peer institutions but also offers a forum for discussion and exchange among experts. It is a concrete example of how MDBs and DFIs can work together as a system to collectively achieve more than they could do alone – improving risk management practices across the IFI industry by exchanging on methodology topics and pooling data.
Confidentiality
The GEMs cooperation is based on a strict confidentiality agreement. The consortium has jointly developed an anonymized data collection process and methodology which supports the protection data confidentiality and allows for the generation of output statistics on the consortium level.
Data Quality
The GEMs methodology and data process, developed over more than 10 years now, ensures data harmonisation and a high level of data quality. The complete GEMs historical dataset is submitted annually leading to updates to previous data and addition of new data. Thus, over time, data quality continuously improves.
DATA COLLECTION AND REPORTING
GOVERNANCE
Steering Committee
The Steering Committee, co-chaired by the European Investment Bank Group and the World Bank Group, represents the interests of the members and defines the strategic and operational priorities. Additionally, the Steering Committee decides on the admission of any additional member institutions into the consortium. The Steering Committee currently is comprised of seven multilateral development banks: European Investment Bank (EIB), International Finance Corporation (IFC), International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), African Development Bank (AfDB), Asian Development Bank (ADB), European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).
Román Escolano
Group Chief Risk Officer, European Investment Bank
Lakshmi Shyam-Sunder
Vice President and Chief Risk Officer, World Bank Group
Federico Galizia
Vice President, Risk and Finance, International Finance Corporation
Rachel Robboy
Chief Risk Officer,
Inter-American Investment Corporation
David Coleman
Vice President, Chief Risk Officer, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
Stephen O'Leary
Head of Office of Risk Management, Asian Development Bank
Ifedayo Orimoloye
Group Chief Risk Officer, African Development Bank
SECRETARIAT
GEMs Secretariat
The Consortium has entrusted the European Investment Bank (EIB) to perform the functions of GEMs Secretariat. GEMs Secretariat is hosted by the European Investment Bank (EIB) and is formed of GEMs Secretary General and several staff members. It facilitates the workflows of the Consortium and coordinates the collaboration with the member institutions. GEMs Secretariat maintains the data submission templates, documentation framework and credit risk methodologies, and coordinates their evolutions in close collaboration with member institutions’ delegates. It steers the production of the Consortium’s internal reports and publications, and oversees the development of the GEMs Webtool, which hosts the database and allows member institutions’ delegates to perform statistical queries. GEMs Secretariat also facilitates the cooperation within the member institutions by organising annual meetings for the general assembly and working groups and running working group activities throughout the year. Moreover, it provides support to the member institutions’ delegates on questions related to the application of the output statistics, provides advice and decision support services to the GEMs Steering Committee, and implements the further development of GEMs according to the Steering Committee’s guidance.
Gregor Cigüt
GEMs Secretary General (act.)
Head of Unit, EIB
Maria Katrantzi
GEMs Secretariat
Senior Risk Officer, EIB
Frank Sperling
GEMs Secretariat
Senior Consultant, EIB
Amine Amesrouh
GEMs Secretariat
Consultant, EIB
Pierre-Alexandre Robert
GEMs Secretariat
Consultant, EIB
Membership
Representatives of the member institutions of the consortium, meet twice a year: at the beginning of the year for a Working Group Annual Meeting and mid-year for a General Assembly Annual Meeting. The General Assembly consists of risk management professionals from the respective member institutions and is concerned with the technical developments around data collection and application of GEMs output statistics, methodology, reporting and other developments as guided by the GEMs Steering Committee. The member institutions of the consortium currently include:
Membership eligibility criteria
As outlined in the GEMs Cooperation Agreement, the GEMs membership is currently limited to:
– Entities within or funded by the public sector (such as MDBs) which have as their role and function the financing and development of emerging markets and are International Financial Institutions established by treaty.
If you’d like to inquire about the membership, please contact the GEMs Secretariat via the form below. The final decision on applications for membership will be made by the GEMs Steering Committee.
You are an eligible institution? Why should you join GEMs?
To have access to the GEMs database webtool
That enables to clean, update and analyse your data and the consortium overall data as well as calculate credit default rates, recoveries and rating migrations.
To receive the GEMs Annual Report
Which presents the latest credit risk statistics calculated out of the most recent available data set
To benefit from the GEMs User Guide
Which presents the latest credit risk statistics calculated out of the most recent available data set
To receive guidance on data and methodology
From the GEMs Secretariat on your own data set and the application of the GEMs statistics in your internal risk management processes
To Network and stay up-to-date
On the most recent discussions on IFI risk management best practices during regular working groups calls and bi-annual in-person meetings
Default statistics publications
GEMs default statistics publications on sovereign and sovereign guaranteed lending 1998-2022 and on private and sub-sovereign lending 1994-2022
To address the need for greater volumes of private investment tackling sustainable development goals in the most isolated regions, the Global Emerging Markets Risk Database Consortium (GEMs) is pleased to issue this year a two volume public report focusing on credit default statistics for private and sub-sovereign lending based on data from 19 member institutions and insight on credit default statistics on sovereign and sovereign guaranteed lending based on data from 11 member institutions. We are proud to share our results building on more than ten years of successful cooperation among GEMs members.
Private and sub sovereign publication key figures on dataset composition
Distribution of counterparties
%
Non - OECD countries
%
Infrastructure sectors group
- High income countries 15%
- Upper-middle income countries 6%
- Lower-middle income countries 35%
- Low income countires 44%
Sovereign and sovereign guaranteed publication key figures on dataset composition
Distribution of sovereign counterparties
%
Non - OECD countries
Number of sovereign
Number of default events
- High income countries 25%
- Upper-middle income countries 29%
- Lower-middle income countries 30%
- Low income countires 15%
GEMs is pleased to make its Private and Sub-Sovereign publication freely available. Please just fill the form below to download the report. We look forward to receiving feedback from the readers and working with the stakeholders to improve the focus and content of the future reports.
GEMs is pleased to make its Sovereign publication freely available. Please just fill the form below to download the report. We look forward to receiving feedback from the readers and working with the stakeholders to improve the focus and content of the future reports.
Recovery Statistics Publication
GEMs recovery statistics publication on private and sub-sovereign lending 1994-2022
This report is the first GEMs publication focusing on recovery rates. The report provides outputs derived from pooled GEMs data going back to 1994, supplied by 19 member institutions, and complements the well-received default statistics reports published in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Recovery statistics publication key figures
%
Recovery rate of private counterparts
%
Recovery rate of public counterparts
GEMs is pleased to make its recovery statistics publication freely available for the first time. Please just fill the form below to download the report. We look forward to receiving feedback from the readers and working with the stakeholders to improve the focus and content of the future reports.
Master Scale
GEMs reference probabilities of default (PD) curve known as the GEMs master scale
The GEMs master scale is the common language regarding the creditworthiness of GEMs member institutions’ lending counterparties (borrowers): it is a 1-year Probability of Default (PD) rating scale built partially based on GEMs observed default rates.
Disclaimer
Neither GEMs nor any GEMs consortium member or their respective constituents represents or warrants as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the content included in this work, or for the conclusions or judgments described herein. Moreover, neither GEMs nor any of its members shall have any responsibility or liability whatsoever to any recipient or to any other party in connection with or arising in any way from such content, conclusions or judgments, or for any omissions or errors (including, without limitation, typographical errors and technical errors) included therein or for reliance thereon. Neither GEMs nor any GEMs consortium member or their respective constituents has an obligation to independently verify the information upon which the work is based, or to update the work for any reason including in the event of changes in that underlying information.
The contents of this work are intended for general informational purposes only. This work and its contents shall not constitute and should not be construed as an offer, a guarantee, an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, or a solicitation or invitation of any type. This work and its contents are not intended to provide, and should not be relied on as providing, financial, accounting, legal, securities, investment or any other type of advice.
Contact
Get in touch with the GEMs Secretariat: